About Northern Lights Forecast

What we do

Northern Lights Forecast is an independent, free website that answers a simple question: can you see the aurora tonight, and when? We turn raw space weather and weather data into an hour-by-hour chance for real places, refreshed every five minutes.

Everything is free on the web: the full hourly forecast, the live aurora map, and alerts. There is no app to install, no account, no popups, and no paywall.

How we calculate the chance

For each place we compute its geomagnetic latitude using a dipole model of Earth’s magnetic field (IGRF epoch 2025) and look up the Kp needed for the auroral oval to reach it. We compare that with NOAA’s observed and forecast Kp for each hour of the coming dark window, raise the chance when NOAA’s OVATION model shows aurora overhead in the next 30–90 minutes, and reduce it for cloud cover (MET Norway), daylight and twilight (sun above −12°), and moonlight.

The result is a probability-style estimate from 0 to 100%, labelled High (70%+), Moderate (40–69%), Low (15–39%) or Unlikely. It is a guide, not a guarantee. The aurora can still appear on a low night or stay away on a high one.

Data and credits

Space weather data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Weather data: MET Norway Locationforecast (CC BY 4.0). Map tiles: OpenFreeMap and OpenStreetMap contributors. See data sources for details.

How we make money

The site may show clearly labelled ads and, on travel guides, affiliate links to tours or gear. These never change the forecast, and ads never appear inside the forecast or on the map.

Contact

Found a bug or a wrong number? We want to know. Tell us through our Telegram channel and we will fix it.