3 Day Aurora Forecast
The next three days of geomagnetic activity, and the month ahead.
Pick your place to see the Kp it needs, marked on the chart.
Kp now
0.7
Max Kp next 24 h
3.7
Storm now
None
NOAA watch (3 days)
G1 (Minor) watch
Kp forecast, next 3 days (your local time)
Faded = observed · solid = forecast · green = storm level (G1+)
| Time | Kp | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 4 12:00 | 3.0 | observed |
| Wed, Nov 4 15:00 | 1.0 | observed |
| Wed, Nov 4 18:00 | 1.7 | observed |
| Wed, Nov 4 21:00 | 1.3 | observed |
| Thu, Nov 5 00:00 | 2.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 03:00 | 2.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 06:00 | 3.0 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 09:00 | 2.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 12:00 | 2.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 15:00 | 1.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 18:00 | 1.7 | forecast |
| Thu, Nov 5 21:00 | 3.7 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 00:00 | 2.3 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 03:00 | 2.0 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 06:00 | 2.0 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 09:00 | 2.3 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 12:00 | 2.3 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 15:00 | 3.7 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 18:00 | 4.0 | forecast |
| Fri, Nov 6 21:00 | 4.7 | forecast |
| Sat, Nov 7 00:00 | 5.0 | forecast |
| Sat, Nov 7 03:00 | 3.7 | forecast |
| Sat, Nov 7 06:00 | 3.3 | forecast |
| Sat, Nov 7 09:00 | 3.3 | forecast |
Status levels
Kp shows how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is, from 0 to 9. The higher it goes, the brighter the aurora and the further from the poles you can see it.
-
Storm
Kp 5 to 9 (G1 to G5): Geomagnetic storm. Bright, fast-moving aurora that can reach far south.
-
Active
Kp 4: Good conditions. Can reach southern Canada, Scotland and the northern US border.
-
Unsettled
Kp 3: Some activity. Common in Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland and northern Scandinavia.
-
Quiet
Kp 0 to 2: Low activity. Fainter aurora, mostly close to the Arctic Circle.
- Faded bars are already measured. Bright bars are the forecast.
- The dashed line is the Kp needed where you are. Bars that reach it are your chances.
What you need to see the lights
- Kp at or above the level needed where you are. The further from the Arctic, the higher it has to be.
- A dark sky: the sun at least 12° below the horizon, so not in summer near the Arctic.
- Clear skies. Clouds block the aurora however strong it is.
- Get away from city lights, look north (south in the southern hemisphere), and give your eyes 15 to 20 minutes.
Updated 02:20 · Source: NOAA SWPC
27-day outlook: daily max Kp
NOAA outlook based on the Sun’s 27-day rotation. Rough guide for trip planning.
- Nov 2 3
- Nov 3 2
- Nov 4 2
- Nov 5 3
- Nov 6 3
- Nov 7 3
- Nov 8 2
- Nov 9 4
- Nov 10 3
- Nov 11 3
- Nov 12 3
- Nov 13 2
- Nov 14 2
- Nov 15 2
- Nov 16 3
- Nov 17 5
- Nov 18 5
- Nov 19 3
- Nov 20 2
- Nov 21 2
- Nov 22 2
- Nov 23 2
- Nov 24 2
- Nov 25 2
- Nov 26 3
- Nov 27 5
- Nov 28 5
Planning a night out or a trip? This page turns NOAA’s three-day geomagnetic forecast and 27-day outlook into something you can read at a glance: when Kp is expected to rise, whether a storm watch is in effect, and which nights look most promising.
How to Read the 3 Day Aurora Forecast
The chart shows Kp in three-hour blocks in your local time. Faded bars on the left are already observed; solid bars are forecast. The tallest bars mark the periods of strongest activity.
The summary above the chart gives the highest Kp expected in the next 24 hours and any NOAA storm watch. A watch (G1 to G5) means NOAA expects a geomagnetic storm, usually because a coronal mass ejection or a fast solar wind stream is on its way.
The 27-day outlook below lists the expected daily maximum Kp for the next four weeks. It is based on the Sun’s 27-day rotation: active regions and coronal holes that caused activity last rotation often return. It is a guide for planning, not a promise.
How Aurora Forecasts Are Made
There are three time scales. Minutes to an hour: spacecraft at the L1 point measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth, which drives NOAA’s OVATION model on our aurora map. One to three days: forecasters track solar eruptions and coronal holes and model when their material will arrive. Weeks: the 27-day outlook assumes features on the Sun repeat as it rotates.
Coronal mass ejections are the main cause of big storms. They take roughly 15 hours to 4 days to reach Earth, and predicted arrival times are often off by several hours, sometimes more. Even when they arrive on time, a storm only develops if their magnetic field points southward (negative Bz).
Coronal hole streams are more predictable and recur every 27 days. They usually produce Kp 4–5 for a day or two, which is great for Arctic and sub-Arctic viewing.
Tips for Planning Around the Forecast
Book flexible. If you are travelling to Tromsø, Rovaniemi, Fairbanks, or Yellowknife, plan at least three to four nights. In the auroral zone, even quiet Kp often brings aurora; clouds are the real risk.
At mid-latitudes, watch for storm watches 1–3 days ahead, then use the hourly forecast on the night. The Kp index page shows the Kp your location needs.
Check the moon. A full moon washes out faint aurora; new moon weeks are best for photography.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the aurora forecast for the next 3 days?
The chart on this page shows NOAA’s Kp forecast in three-hour blocks for the next three days, updated every five minutes from NOAA data.
Will the northern lights be visible tomorrow?
Check tomorrow’s Kp on the chart and the three-night strip on the main forecast, which also includes cloud cover and darkness for your place.
How reliable is a 3 day aurora forecast?
The first 24 hours are fairly reliable. Days two and three can shift, especially when a coronal mass ejection is involved, because arrival time and magnetic orientation are hard to predict.
What is the 27-day aurora forecast?
NOAA’s 27-day outlook estimates daily maximum Kp based on the Sun’s rotation. Use it for rough trip planning only.
What is a geomagnetic storm watch?
A NOAA notice that a geomagnetic storm (G1–G5) is expected. It often means the aurora will be visible much further from the poles than usual.
What is the best time of year to see the aurora?
From late August to mid-April in the northern hemisphere, when nights are dark. The weeks around the equinoxes in March and September are often especially active.
Related
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and MET Norway. Updated every 5 minutes. Data sources